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Title |
An Autogenous Shrinkage Prediction Model for Concrete in Korea Reflecting the Correlation of Theoretical Ultimate Shrinkage According to Water-to-Binder Ratio
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Authors |
박산하(San-Ha Park) ; 권승희(Seung-Hee Kwon) ; 이정수(Jung-Soo Lee) ; 김형기(Hyeong-Ki Kim) |
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DOI |
https://doi.org/10.4334/JKCI.2026.38.3.343 |
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Keywords |
자기수축; 예측모델; 변수 분석; 국내 실험데이터; 물-결합재비 autogenous (basic) shrinkage; prediction model; parameter analysis; Korean experimental data; water-to-binder ratio |
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Abstract |
This study proposes an improved prediction model for the autogenous (or basic) shrinkage of concrete, specifically focusing on the correlation between the water-to-binder ratio (w/b) and the theoretical ultimate shrinkage. Autogenous shrinkage is a complex phenomenon influenced by internal relative humidity changes and early-age creep; however, these aspects are not sufficiently reflected in current Korean design codes. To address this, more than 200 sets of experimental autogenous shrinkage data were collected from Korean literature published between 1990 and 2024. The data-driven parameter analysis revealed that the theoretical ultimate autogenous shrinkage was primarily governed by the w/b, while no clear trend was identified for the parameters controlling the rate of shrinkage development. Based on these findings, a simplified autogenous shrinkage model was developed in which the ultimate shrinkage is defined as a function of w/b and the rate-related parameters are assigned average values. Validation results showed that more than 95% of the experimental data fell within +20% of the model predictions, indicating that the proposed model achieves a level of accuracy suitable for practical applications.
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