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Title Multi-model Averaging Method for Time-dependent Deformation in Concrete
Authors 차상률(Sang-Lyul Cha) ; 진승섭(Seung-Seop Jin)
Page pp.545-555
ISSN 1229-5515
Keywords 다중모델 평균화; 크리프; 수축; 콘크리트; 시간변형 model averaging; creep; shrinkage; concrete; time-dependent deformation
Abstract Concrete creep and drying shrinkage are the most well-known time-dependent deformations of concrete. Since they are important factors for the design of concrete structures, their predictions should be estimated accurately during construction and service life. There are various prediction models, and these models are calibrated using short-term experiments (calibration period) to reflect uncertainties due to heterogeneity of concrete. Traditionally, a best model is selected to make a long-term prediction (extrapolation period). Although similar prediction performances are achieved over calibration period, predictions over the extrapolation are different depending on the selected model. To address this difficulty, a multi-model averaging method is proposed to improve the prediction accuracy. The proposed method is validated by comparing the predictive results with the experimental results. The results show that the proposed method provides consistent and reliable predictions over both calibration and extrapolation periods.