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Title |
Uncertainty Analysis of Long-Term Behavior of Reinforced Concrete Members Under Axial Load
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DOI |
https://doi.org/10.4334/JKCI.2014.26.3.343 |
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Keywords |
크리프 ; 건조수축 ; 장기거동해석 ; 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션 creep ; shrinkage ; long-term analysis ; Monte Carlo |
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Abstract |
A probabilistic construction stage analysis using the Monte Carlo Simulation was performed to address the effects of uncertainty regarding the material properties, environmental factors, and applied forces. In the previous research, creep and shrinkage were assumed to be completely independent random variables. However, because of the common influencing factors in the material models for the creep and shrinkage estimation, strong correlation between creep and shrinkage can be presumed. In this paper, an Monte Carlo Simulation using CEB-FIB creep and shrinkage equations were performed to actually evaluate the correlation coefficient between two phenomena, and then another Monte Carlo Simulation to evaluate the statistical properties of axial strain affected by partially correlated random variables including the material properties, environmental factors, and applied forces. The results of Monte Carlo Simulation were compared with measured strains of a column on a first story in a 58-story building. Comparison indicated that the variation due to the uncertainty related with the material properties were most severe. And measured strains was within the range of mean+standard deviation.
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